Technical analysis is the study of past financial market data, primarily through the use of charts, to forecast price trends and make investment decisions. In its purest form, technical analysis is concerned with the actual price behavior of the market or instrument, based on the premise that price reflects all relevant factors before an investor becomes aware of them through other channels.
Technicians believe that profits can be made by "trend following." So, if a stock price is steadily rising (trending upward), a technician will look for opportunities to buy this stock. This is why technical analysis is concerned more with where prices are moving (the direction or chart pattern). Until the technician is convinced this uptrend has reversed or ended, all else equal, he will continue to own this security. To that end, technical analysts anticipate the various patterns on a price chart and take positions according to the expected pattern.
Technicians apply the tools of technical analysis to decide when the trends and patterns have begun, peaked, reversed, etc. For example, a popular technical analysis tool is a stock price's 200 day moving average. This is the average closing price of a stock over the past 200 trading days (though there are many variations on the moving average used in technical analysis). A stock that has been trending higher will have a history of an increasing daily stock price and an increasing 200 day moving average. Though the daily stock price fluctuates (up 50 cents on day 1, down 20 cents on day 2, up 10 cents on day 3, etc.), the 200 day moving average changes much more slowly and traces a smooth curve that follows the current price on a chart.
When the daily stock price violates the 200 day moving average, a technician sees strong evidence that a price trend has ended and that a new one may have begun to the opposite direction. Suppose IBM's 200 day moving average was 85 and the stock has been trending higher. If IBM closed at 84.50 a technician may sell his IBM shares, and perhaps sell short IBM because the perceived trend is reversing.
The above example also shows that technical analysis data is can be interpreted in several ways. One technical analyst might believe that IBM would need to trade below its moving average for two consecutive days before deciding the trend is over. Another might say one day is adequate. All technicians are likely to think a close below the 200 day moving average is important, but all may not agree on the best way to act. Still, in this example it is safe to assume that most technicians expect to sell IBM.
The problem in this example is: What if in the near term IBM climbs back above its 200 day moving average after the technician sells his stock? If the technical analyst follows his own rules, he may buy the stock back at a higher price than he just sold (plus commissions). This reflects some of the criticisms of technical analysis (see below). Technicians say "false signals" or "whipsaws" are an unavoidable part of using technical analysis, and that the costs of these whipsaws are outweighed by catching a stock early in a long term trend.
If you're a "numbers person," or a heavy-duty computer geek, then you might be interested in a method of picking stocks known as technical analysis. Technical analysis looks at the relationships that exist between a stock's price, its volume (the number of shares that trade hands during a single day), and other factors. By plotting and mathematical analysis, technical analysts hope to be able to predict future changes in the price of a particular stock.
By looking for particular patterns on a price chart of a stock, for instance, technical analysts try to figure out the direction that the stock's price is likely to move in the future. These patterns often have unusual names such as "cup and handle," "head and shoulders," or "double top." If you can identify any of several dozen different established patterns in a stock's price, then you might have a good chance of knowing whether a stock is about to "breakout" (that's technical analysis talk for "rise in price") or "retreat" ("fall in price").
Other information about a stock is often also plotted on a chart along with its price history. A moving average of the stock's price is often included. Each day, the average price of the stock is calculated for the past 90 or 200 days. This moving average is plotted on the chart alongside the price, and can give you an idea of the past trends of stock's price.
Once you've got the basics of technical analysis under your belt, you'll need a couple of things before you start investing -- access to charting software and price data, and plenty of time.
A stock's price chart is the primary tool of technical analysis. There are many technical analysis software programs that you can use if you want to study stocks using these methods. MetaStock, Windows on Wall Street, Omega TradeStation are just a few. You can subscribe to your pick of many services on the Web providing daily price updates that can be imported into these programs.
These programs can be quite expensive, however, so another option might weigh in as the more economical choice for savvy Internet investors. Instead of using a standalone software program, you can take advantage of the free charting programs that are available on the Web.
To use technical analysis successfully, you need to be able to spend time on your portfolio on a regular basis. You need to be able to consistently take the time to analyze charts, and perform the operations necessary to update the indicators you use. And once you've bought a stock, you need to be vigilant in watching that stock's chart in order to know when to sell. There's no time for relaxing if you're a technician.
Opponents of technical analysis point out that there is little likelihood that this method even works. Debate rages about whether it's possible to predict future price movements based on a stock's past performance, or that patterns on a chart are indicative of anything other than pretty designs.